Portfolio & Performance Update Q2 2025
Short Notes on New Positions and Exits
For the first half of 2025, my portfolio is up 10% measured in Euro. I am satisfied with this performance both on an absolute basis and relative to my benchmark, the MSCI World. Given that the MSCI World index (EUR) is down 3.8% year-to-date (YTD), this represents substantial outperformance.
Throughout 2025, my portfolio has primarily consisted of US-based companies, making the weakening US dollar (down 12.8% vs. the Euro YTD) a notable performance headwind. My long-term objective remains to compound at a CAGR of 15-20%, and thus far, I am well aligned with this target.
Disclaimer: This write-up is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Top Performers YTD:
SK Hynix: +69%
Root: +59% (see my writeup here)
IWG: +35% (see my writeup here)
Portfolio turnover has again been higher than I would ideally like, particularly given I am now subject to capital gains tax after fully offsetting losses from 2022. However, market volatility has naturally created attractive opportunities to buy low and sell high, so who am I to complain. That said, I intend to reduce turnover going forward if the markets stabilize.
I also plan to increase diversification slightly over the coming weeks and months, primarily because I currently see several good opportunities but only relatively few exceptional ones—Oscar Health (see my writeup here), IWG, and SK Hynix being standouts. My general rule is to maintain larger bets (positions above 7.5%) only when I foresee exceptional returns. For most holdings, I anticipate annual returns around 15%-20%, so spreading the portfolio across these investments feels prudent and should serve well even if larger bets underperform expectations.
Current Portfolio
New Positions (since April 12, 2025):
Nebius (6%): Most direct AI datacenter play, replacing my earlier Oracle position. Nebius is considerably cheaper than Coreweave and with a much stronger capital structure: no significant debt and promising stakes in private firms that could be sold to finance growth. Revenue growth is very steep, driven by persistent AI compute demand. The position is already up 23.5%.
Block (5%): Margin expansion continues, though current growth is modest. I am optimistic about Square, Cash App, and Afterpay, as well as synergies among the three segments. In my view solid investment case at today’s valuation even if growth stays moderate, excellent upside potential if it accelerates.
Alibaba (5%): Following a substantial decline since my writeup, I have rebalanced this position to 5%. Key performance indicator is its cloud business. Alibaba trades at an undemanding forward P/E of 11x.
Xometry (5%): Up 13% since my May 6 writeup. No changes to the thesis or position since.
Novo Nordisk (5%): Down 30% YTD, creating an attractive entry point at a forward P/E of 17x. Despite market concerns about competitive pressures from Eli Lilly, I believe that Novo remains a high-quality company that is set up for a rerating if execution continues successfully. Patient investors should benefit significantly at current valuations from both, earnings growth, and multiple expansion.
HelloFresh (5%): HelloFresh is down 30% ytd, and down 38% from the highs in February. I have taken the opportunity to re-enter a position. Following the Q1 results, I remain optimistic about the cash flow generating power of the mealkit business. While the 2025 guide for the ready-to-eat business was below my growth expectation, I remain long term bullish. See my writeup on HelloFresh here.
Exited Positions:
Amazon: Disappointing AWS growth; losing share to Azure and Google Cloud.
Cimpress: Q1 results fell short of expectations.
QXO: Sold after rapid price appreciation from under $15 to over $20. Will consider re-entry at lower valuations or improved fundamentals.
Nvidia: Exited after significant run-up. At a $4 trillion market cap, there's little room for error or competition catching up.
Sotherly Hotels: Exited after sharp appreciation from $0.66 to $1.
Overall, I am optimistic about the portfolio’s positioning going into the second half of the year, with a strategic balance of high-conviction bets and international as well as sectoral diversification.